Wood Mackenzie: oil could hit US$150/bbl
What happened
With 15 million bpd of Gulf supply suddenly offline, global oil demand will need to fall to rebalance the market – a process that could require prices to reach US$150/bbl, according to new Wood Mackenzie analysis. Gulf countries in total produce 20 million bpd of liquids, and 15 million bpd of exports have been taken out of the global market. This matters for Projects (EPC/EPCM & Construction) because fresh price movement and input-cost detail should reset bid assumptions, lstk vs reimbursable choice, and negotiation guardrails with 15, 150, 20 as the clearest commercial anchors; expect bid selectivity
Buyer takeaway
For Projects (EPC/EPCM & Construction), treat this as a cost-boundary signal rather than just a headline; buyer assumptions may need refreshing before the next quote or award decision
Cost / money
Use this to refresh should-cost views and challenge any fast repricing. Keep the read-through directional unless the source itself provides hard commercial numbers
Supplier / commercial
Suppliers with fresh cost justification may push harder on reopeners, indexation, shorter quote validity, or pass-through language. Buyers should separate real drivers from negotiation posture
Safety / operations
The operational risk is indirect: tight budgets or repricing battles often reappear later as reduced slack, substitutions, or execution compromises that buyers then have to manage
What to watch
Watch for shorter quote validity, reopeners, pass-through requests, or attempts to reset pricing on the back of weak evidence
Key facts
- With 15 million bpd of Gulf supply suddenly offline, global oil demand will need to fall to r
- Gulf countries in total produce 20 million bpd of liquids, and 15 million bpd of exports have
- "Prices already US$100/bblCompetition for remaining barrels has already pushed prices above U
- In 2025, Gulf refineries supplied 60% of Europe's jet fuel and 30% of its diesel, volumes whi
