EIA: increasing fuel efficiency leads to decreasing gasoline consumption
What happened
Annual motor gasoline consumption in the US decreased in 2025 even as vehicle miles travelled (VMT) increased because of increasing fuel efficiency, a trend the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast will continue in 2026 and 2027. 9 million bpd in 2025, 1% less than 2024 and 4% less than pre-pandemic demand in 2019. This matters for Projects (EPC/EPCM & Construction) because fresh price movement and input-cost detail should reset bid assumptions, lstk vs reimbursable choice, and negotiation guardrails with 2025, 2026, 2027 as the clearest commercial anchors; expect bid selectivity
Buyer takeaway
For Projects (EPC/EPCM & Construction), treat this as a cost-boundary signal rather than just a headline; buyer assumptions may need refreshing before the next quote or award decision
Cost / money
Use this to refresh should-cost views and challenge any fast repricing. Keep the read-through directional unless the source itself provides hard commercial numbers
Supplier / commercial
Suppliers with fresh cost justification may push harder on reopeners, indexation, shorter quote validity, or pass-through language. Buyers should separate real drivers from negotiation posture
Safety / operations
The operational risk is indirect: tight budgets or repricing battles often reappear later as reduced slack, substitutions, or execution compromises that buyers then have to manage
What to watch
Watch for shorter quote validity, reopeners, pass-through requests, or attempts to reset pricing on the back of weak evidence
Key facts
- Annual motor gasoline consumption in the US decreased in 2025 even as vehicle miles travelled
- 9 million bpd in 2025, 1% less than 2024 and 4% less than pre-pandemic demand in 2019
- In the April STEO, the EIA estimate that increased vehicle fleet fuel economy offset increase
- 2% more VMT over 2024, the MPG estimate shows vehicle fleet fuel economy improved 1
